| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
147 |
0.680 |
$99.78 |
$44.14 |
+79.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
103 |
0.835 |
$85.70 |
$2.57 |
+3.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
88 |
0.935 |
$81.83 |
$2.67 |
+3.4% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? |
Yes |
203 |
0.355 |
$72.05 |
$5.90 |
+8.9% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
86 |
0.786 |
$67.67 |
$12.69 |
+23.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
91 |
0.695 |
$63.10 |
$0.32 |
+0.5% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
69 |
0.715 |
$49.58 |
$7.18 |
+16.9% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
86 |
0.515 |
$44.20 |
$6.36 |
+16.8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
42 |
0.930 |
$38.92 |
$2.36 |
+6.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
80 |
0.460 |
$36.88 |
$18.03 |
+95.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
221 |
0.165 |
$36.52 |
$-18.81 |
-34.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
80 |
0.455 |
$36.26 |
$1.20 |
+3.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
39 |
0.885 |
$34.69 |
$2.74 |
+8.6% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
123 |
0.278 |
$34.09 |
$0.94 |
+2.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
36 |
0.940 |
$33.49 |
$1.36 |
+4.2% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
88 |
0.375 |
$33.06 |
$1.65 |
+5.3% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.655 |
$33.03 |
$0.96 |
+3.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
42 |
0.770 |
$32.38 |
$7.67 |
+31.0% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
34 |
0.945 |
$32.23 |
$2.22 |
+7.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
35 |
0.850 |
$29.60 |
$3.60 |
+13.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
32 |
0.835 |
$27.03 |
$-0.16 |
-0.6% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
Yes |
53 |
0.510 |
$26.87 |
$3.46 |
+14.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
32 |
0.724 |
$23.36 |
$1.46 |
+6.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
24 |
0.945 |
$23.05 |
$1.78 |
+8.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
29 |
0.785 |
$22.50 |
$5.72 |
+34.1% |