| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
275 |
0.835 |
$229.63 |
$14.93 |
+7.0% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? |
No |
245 |
0.780 |
$191.25 |
$28.80 |
+17.7% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? |
No |
437 |
0.420 |
$183.36 |
$-105.57 |
-36.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
180 |
0.964 |
$173.42 |
$9.63 |
+5.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
160 |
0.985 |
$157.52 |
$3.15 |
+2.0% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
155 |
0.983 |
$152.36 |
$5.66 |
+3.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
166 |
0.755 |
$125.55 |
$-2.70 |
-2.1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
105 |
0.981 |
$102.95 |
$4.80 |
+4.9% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? |
No |
106 |
0.933 |
$99.36 |
$8.97 |
+9.9% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.989 |
$98.85 |
$0.25 |
+0.3% |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? |
No |
101 |
0.839 |
$85.12 |
$5.79 |
+7.3% |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? |
No |
77 |
0.963 |
$74.62 |
$2.33 |
+3.2% |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? |
No |
81 |
0.903 |
$72.79 |
$6.81 |
+10.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
78 |
0.855 |
$66.46 |
$15.03 |
+29.2% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
No |
61 |
0.895 |
$54.97 |
$1.64 |
+3.1% |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? |
No |
75 |
0.715 |
$53.59 |
$0.27 |
+0.5% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
60 |
0.835 |
$50.10 |
$5.20 |
+11.6% |
| Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.745 |
$44.70 |
$2.10 |
+4.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.950 |
$37.98 |
$1.60 |
+4.4% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.935 |
$37.40 |
$1.00 |
+2.7% |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
40 |
0.910 |
$36.32 |
$4.34 |
+13.6% |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.890 |
$35.60 |
$2.00 |
+6.0% |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? |
No |
41 |
0.775 |
$31.76 |
$0.68 |
+2.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
36 |
0.865 |
$30.77 |
$1.77 |
+6.1% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
40 |
0.760 |
$30.40 |
$-0.80 |
-2.6% |