| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
14,310 |
0.865 |
$12,377.97 |
$448.13 |
+3.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
4,484 |
0.959 |
$4,298.11 |
$-42.06 |
-1.0% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
723 |
0.940 |
$679.50 |
$172.80 |
+34.1% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
685 |
0.989 |
$677.21 |
$67.48 |
+11.1% |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? |
No |
488 |
0.895 |
$436.32 |
$77.01 |
+21.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
1,870 |
0.215 |
$402.02 |
$-1,299.70 |
-76.4% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,964 |
0.117 |
$345.30 |
$345.30 |
+0.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
1,906 |
0.165 |
$314.48 |
$-257.30 |
-45.0% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
590 |
0.210 |
$123.82 |
$-343.90 |
-73.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
99 |
0.969 |
$96.36 |
$-0.65 |
-0.7% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
2,251 |
0.037 |
$84.41 |
$-10.53 |
-11.1% |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? |
Yes |
103 |
0.820 |
$84.26 |
$84.26 |
+0.0% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
48 |
0.956 |
$46.12 |
$10.90 |
+31.0% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
231 |
0.095 |
$21.91 |
$-72.64 |
-76.8% |
| Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
18 |
0.975 |
$17.55 |
$3.87 |
+28.3% |
| Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? |
Yes |
16 |
0.980 |
$15.88 |
$15.88 |
+0.0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
551 |
0.025 |
$13.98 |
$13.98 |
+0.0% |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
3,839 |
0.004 |
$13.44 |
$-71.67 |
-84.2% |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
292 |
0.040 |
$11.52 |
$-0.73 |
-6.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
6 |
0.900 |
$5.04 |
$0.22 |
+4.6% |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.445 |
$3.26 |
$3.26 |
+0.0% |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
765 |
0.001 |
$0.38 |
$-286.59 |
-99.9% |