PnL (30d)

−$22

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$4

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

48%

170W / 185L · 48 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

200W / 199L · 4 open

Trades (30d)

403

across 26 markets · ~16 per market

EV / position

−$1.80

avg win $4 · loss $13

Profit Factor

0.59

$30 won / $52 lost

Reward / Risk

0.29

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	61.0% 518W/331L	201	$4,711
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/3L	1	$0
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/3L	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	42	0.875	$36.94	$8.23	+28.7%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	No	25	0.990	$24.74	$-0.01	-0.1%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	20	0.625	$12.49	$10.27	+462.5%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	5	0.968	$4.86	$-0.13	-2.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	15	0.045	$0.69	$-2.36	-77.5%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	20	0.021	$0.41	$-1.81	-81.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	15	0.025	$0.38	$-2.67	-87.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	15	0.015	$0.22	$-2.83	-92.8%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	25	0.006	$0.15	$-2.63	-94.6%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	2	0.019	$0.03	$-0.11	-77.2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	3	0.006	$0.02	$-0.54	-97.0%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in July?	Yes	2	0.005	$0.01	$-0.13	-94.0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	5	0.002	$0.01	$-1.01	-99.2%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	5	0.002	$0.01	$-1.01	-99.2%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?	Yes	2	0.004	$0.01	$-0.13	-95.8%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?	Yes	2	0.004	$0.01	$-0.13	-95.8%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	8	0.001	$0.00	$-1.55	-99.7%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July?	Yes	2	0.002	$0.00	$-0.14	-98.2%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	5	0.001	$0.00	$-1.02	-99.7%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in July?	Yes	2	0.002	$0.00	$-0.14	-98.2%