| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
38 |
0.967 |
$37.05 |
$8.84 |
+31.3% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
Yes |
70 |
0.480 |
$33.60 |
$7.90 |
+30.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
45 |
0.590 |
$26.63 |
$9.07 |
+51.6% |
| Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
No |
33 |
0.768 |
$25.64 |
$4.47 |
+21.1% |
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
25 |
0.994 |
$24.85 |
$7.16 |
+40.5% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? |
No |
34 |
0.645 |
$22.01 |
$2.22 |
+11.2% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
No |
31 |
0.705 |
$21.59 |
$6.58 |
+43.9% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
40 |
0.535 |
$21.33 |
$-8.12 |
-27.6% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? |
No |
25 |
0.825 |
$20.62 |
$13.88 |
+205.6% |
| Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? |
No |
20 |
0.984 |
$19.67 |
$4.67 |
+31.1% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.963 |
$19.25 |
$1.76 |
+10.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
20 |
0.925 |
$18.50 |
$7.10 |
+62.3% |
| Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.924 |
$18.49 |
$3.89 |
+26.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
20 |
0.922 |
$18.44 |
$3.44 |
+22.9% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
No |
20 |
0.899 |
$17.99 |
$1.25 |
+7.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
20 |
0.890 |
$17.80 |
$7.30 |
+69.5% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
34 |
0.522 |
$17.79 |
$3.99 |
+28.9% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
27 |
0.665 |
$17.69 |
$-0.36 |
-2.0% |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? |
Yes |
20 |
0.850 |
$17.00 |
$-0.60 |
-3.4% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.840 |
$16.80 |
$1.00 |
+6.3% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.823 |
$16.62 |
$4.16 |
+33.4% |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? |
No |
20 |
0.830 |
$16.60 |
$6.30 |
+61.2% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
22 |
0.746 |
$16.42 |
$3.99 |
+32.1% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.785 |
$15.70 |
$1.50 |
+10.6% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.765 |
$15.68 |
$0.82 |
+5.5% |