| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
No |
211 |
0.545 |
$115.10 |
$5.13 |
+4.7% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
152 |
0.748 |
$113.91 |
$12.00 |
+11.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
No |
145 |
0.605 |
$87.91 |
$-7.01 |
-7.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
102 |
0.742 |
$75.37 |
$9.15 |
+13.8% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
No |
78 |
0.925 |
$72.14 |
$14.83 |
+25.9% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
103 |
0.485 |
$50.00 |
$5.02 |
+11.2% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
49 |
0.886 |
$43.37 |
$23.45 |
+117.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
71 |
0.545 |
$38.66 |
$8.68 |
+28.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
28 |
1.000 |
$27.68 |
$7.94 |
+40.2% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
No |
29 |
0.920 |
$26.61 |
$5.71 |
+27.3% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
23 |
0.935 |
$21.22 |
$6.32 |
+42.4% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
20 |
1.000 |
$19.52 |
$4.54 |
+30.3% |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
18 |
0.990 |
$18.19 |
$4.20 |
+30.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
28 |
0.645 |
$18.04 |
$3.02 |
+20.1% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
19 |
0.825 |
$16.04 |
$1.06 |
+7.1% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
22 |
0.643 |
$14.11 |
$-0.88 |
-5.8% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.865 |
$13.35 |
$3.36 |
+33.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
15 |
0.825 |
$12.40 |
$2.41 |
+24.1% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.605 |
$12.33 |
$2.34 |
+23.5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
21 |
0.545 |
$11.55 |
$-0.33 |
-2.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
13 |
0.835 |
$11.21 |
$1.21 |
+12.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.625 |
$10.79 |
$0.79 |
+7.9% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
39 |
0.259 |
$10.05 |
$-1.15 |
-10.2% |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
Yes |
14 |
0.715 |
$10.01 |
$3.29 |
+49.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
15 |
0.675 |
$9.92 |
$-0.07 |
-0.7% |