PnL (30d)

−$542

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$437

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-15.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

24%

19W / 61L · 84 open

Win Return (30d)

47%

74W / 85L · 5 open

Trades (30d)

164

across 17 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

−$67.69

avg win $64 · loss $147

Profit Factor

0.26

$191 won / $733 lost

Reward / Risk

0.44

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$20

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	23.8% 19W/61L	17	$5,349
🏛 Politics	—	1	$47

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	3,097	0.745	$2,306.03	$289.66	+14.4%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,204	0.740	$891.10	$140.16	+18.7%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?	Yes	3,381	0.240	$811.55	$133.47	+19.7%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	Yes	670	0.735	$492.48	$92.95	+23.3%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Yes	778	0.375	$291.61	$115.03	+65.1%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	450	0.565	$254.21	$13.21	+5.5%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	349	0.615	$214.72	$62.47	+41.0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?	Yes	400	0.155	$61.99	$-5.00	-7.5%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,251	0.010	$12.51	$-5.00	-28.5%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Yes	5	0.340	$1.70	$1.55	+1033.3%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Yes	2	0.033	$0.07	$0.01	+10.0%