| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
3,103 |
0.945 |
$2,932.08 |
$260.88 |
+9.8% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,841 |
0.853 |
$2,421.56 |
$266.61 |
+12.4% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
No |
2,520 |
0.885 |
$2,230.19 |
$94.81 |
+4.4% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
No |
2,759 |
0.765 |
$2,110.59 |
$29.81 |
+1.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.625 |
$1,874.83 |
$50.54 |
+2.8% |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,666 |
0.856 |
$1,425.72 |
$68.91 |
+5.1% |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? |
No |
1,494 |
0.875 |
$1,307.24 |
$395.55 |
+43.4% |
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? |
No |
1,211 |
0.952 |
$1,152.27 |
$80.29 |
+7.5% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
2,651 |
0.375 |
$994.13 |
$-170.10 |
-14.6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
997 |
0.940 |
$937.07 |
$51.51 |
+5.8% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? |
No |
1,065 |
0.875 |
$932.01 |
$-20.32 |
-2.1% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
No |
1,400 |
0.630 |
$882.00 |
$27.00 |
+3.2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? |
No |
1,200 |
0.725 |
$870.01 |
$-6.00 |
-0.7% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? |
No |
877 |
0.905 |
$793.68 |
$9.93 |
+1.3% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
800 |
0.955 |
$764.02 |
$137.17 |
+21.9% |
| Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026? |
No |
600 |
0.949 |
$569.09 |
$8.10 |
+1.4% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
650 |
0.665 |
$432.25 |
$181.75 |
+72.6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.325 |
$325.00 |
$-5.00 |
-1.5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
324 |
0.978 |
$316.65 |
$12.42 |
+4.1% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
1,057 |
0.295 |
$311.80 |
$-92.16 |
-22.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
1,800 |
0.165 |
$297.00 |
$-35.00 |
-10.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.125 |
$250.00 |
$-10.00 |
-3.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.795 |
$238.50 |
$103.50 |
+76.7% |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? |
Yes |
514 |
0.155 |
$79.67 |
$-38.44 |
-32.5% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.045 |
$68.25 |
$-75.65 |
-52.6% |