PnL (30d)

−$144,887

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$225

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-12.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

65%

28W / 15L · 18 open

Win Return (30d)

75%

46W / 15L

Trades (30d)

61

across 4 markets · ~15 per market

EV / position

−$48,295.56

avg win $20,380 · loss $185,646

Profit Factor

0.22

$40,759 won / $185,646 lost

Reward / Risk

0.11

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$74,368

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	72.2% 39W/15L	7	$1,521,370
🏛 Politics	73.3% 22W/8L	2	$815,597
💵 Economy	73.3% 22W/8L	2	$815,597

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	285,171	0.935	$266,634.60	$55,043.65	+26.0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	74,141	0.962	$71,323.53	$4,242.79	+6.3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	27,158	0.905	$24,578.33	$2,108.90	+9.4%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	36,834	0.115	$4,235.90	$-9,590.11	-69.4%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	5,117	0.485	$2,481.86	$2.21	+0.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	52,691	0.037	$1,975.93	$-4,607.70	-70.0%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	1,161	0.971	$1,126.50	$70.52	+6.7%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	25,739	0.025	$630.61	$-1,685.91	-72.8%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	162	0.201	$32.55	$-72.96	-69.2%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	10	0.135	$1.30	$-0.14	-10.0%