PnL (30d)

−$3,899

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$70

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-12.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

31%

138W / 307L · 78 open

Win Return (30d)

34%

177W / 346L

Trades (30d)

523

across 51 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

−$97.47

avg win $108 · loss $375

Profit Factor

0.39

$2,478 won / $6,376 lost

Reward / Risk

0.29

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	31.0% 138W/307L	51	$41,983
🏛 Politics	—	1	$292

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?	No	987	0.840	$828.78	$182.78	+28.3%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?	No	934	0.680	$634.89	$13.49	+2.2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	1,093	0.560	$612.29	$-253.20	-29.3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	909	0.440	$399.93	$-93.07	-18.9%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?	Yes	393	0.975	$383.23	$83.23	+27.7%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?	No	488	0.780	$381.03	$-4.77	-1.2%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	370	0.815	$301.81	$1.82	+0.6%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	No	266	0.535	$142.54	$10.05	+7.6%
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?	No	116	0.810	$94.19	$-5.81	-5.8%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?	No	79	0.650	$51.57	$0.58	+1.1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?	Yes	13	0.370	$4.96	$-0.16	-3.2%