| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
2,228 |
0.989 |
$2,203.04 |
$4.69 |
+0.2% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
No |
1,767 |
0.993 |
$1,754.63 |
$-3.45 |
-0.2% |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,620 |
0.915 |
$1,482.48 |
$31.49 |
+2.2% |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? |
No |
907 |
0.980 |
$887.96 |
$69.23 |
+8.5% |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.861 |
$860.49 |
$12.50 |
+1.5% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.580 |
$579.99 |
$30.00 |
+5.5% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
500 |
0.984 |
$491.75 |
$13.25 |
+2.8% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by August 31? |
Yes |
492 |
0.983 |
$484.07 |
$12.63 |
+2.7% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
500 |
0.958 |
$478.75 |
$-2.25 |
-0.5% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.465 |
$465.00 |
$-135.00 |
-22.5% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31? |
No |
456 |
0.989 |
$450.54 |
$3.53 |
+0.8% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
500 |
0.879 |
$439.50 |
$-8.00 |
-1.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
500 |
0.865 |
$432.50 |
$22.50 |
+5.5% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? |
Yes |
517 |
0.775 |
$400.52 |
$72.32 |
+22.0% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 255M by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.993 |
$397.20 |
$4.80 |
+1.2% |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? |
Yes |
437 |
0.863 |
$376.70 |
$62.43 |
+19.9% |
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? |
No |
333 |
0.987 |
$328.62 |
$19.15 |
+6.2% |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? |
Yes |
271 |
0.820 |
$222.23 |
$-10.13 |
-4.4% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? |
No |
221 |
0.949 |
$209.73 |
$7.36 |
+3.6% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? |
No |
203 |
0.997 |
$202.29 |
$6.57 |
+3.4% |
| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
Yes |
221 |
0.905 |
$200.12 |
$10.87 |
+5.7% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
314 |
0.625 |
$196.39 |
$-31.54 |
-13.8% |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? |
No |
202 |
0.962 |
$194.70 |
$-0.09 |
-0.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
200 |
0.923 |
$184.60 |
$0.60 |
+0.3% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.915 |
$182.98 |
$13.00 |
+7.6% |