| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
16,131 |
0.905 |
$14,598.42 |
$3,904.33 |
+36.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
22,222 |
0.635 |
$14,110.91 |
$-777.77 |
-5.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
13,510 |
0.215 |
$2,904.63 |
$-8,983.70 |
-75.6% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? |
No |
2,245 |
0.934 |
$2,096.90 |
$635.76 |
+43.5% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,395 |
0.875 |
$2,095.92 |
$402.05 |
+23.7% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? |
No |
4,444 |
0.465 |
$2,066.45 |
$422.18 |
+25.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
18,087 |
0.105 |
$1,899.19 |
$-4,744.60 |
-71.4% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
11,111 |
0.145 |
$1,611.09 |
$-611.10 |
-27.5% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
2,222 |
0.625 |
$1,388.75 |
$455.51 |
+48.8% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,301 |
0.989 |
$1,286.15 |
$128.16 |
+11.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
Yes |
22,335 |
0.055 |
$1,228.41 |
$-565.92 |
-31.5% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
12,077 |
0.100 |
$1,207.66 |
$-2,830.56 |
-70.1% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
Yes |
23,554 |
0.023 |
$541.74 |
$-998.41 |
-64.8% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? |
Yes |
4,223 |
0.125 |
$527.88 |
$-881.47 |
-62.5% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
444 |
0.780 |
$346.20 |
$-34.21 |
-9.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
16,562 |
0.019 |
$322.95 |
$-1,323.84 |
-80.4% |
| Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? |
Yes |
5,555 |
0.032 |
$177.76 |
$-94.44 |
-34.7% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
942 |
0.185 |
$174.28 |
$-14.13 |
-7.5% |
| Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? |
No |
81 |
0.978 |
$79.32 |
$2.27 |
+2.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
Yes |
1,040 |
0.045 |
$46.81 |
$-165.19 |
-77.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
Yes |
287 |
0.060 |
$17.20 |
$-94.59 |
-84.6% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
16 |
0.962 |
$15.00 |
$2.36 |
+18.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
No |
801 |
0.002 |
$1.20 |
$-223.11 |
-99.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
No |
1,540 |
0.001 |
$0.77 |
$-285.08 |
-99.7% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2 |
0.185 |
$0.34 |
$-0.07 |
-15.9% |