| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
79,944 |
0.845 |
$67,552.48 |
$4,122.54 |
+6.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
39,003 |
0.675 |
$26,327.31 |
$3,191.34 |
+13.8% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
56,943 |
0.460 |
$26,165.25 |
$4,767.94 |
+22.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
Yes |
58,322 |
0.395 |
$23,037.18 |
$7,890.67 |
+52.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
45,390 |
0.455 |
$20,652.61 |
$10,036.71 |
+94.5% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
26,899 |
0.465 |
$12,508.10 |
$-28.32 |
-0.2% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
13,830 |
0.823 |
$11,375.51 |
$9,754.38 |
+601.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
12,000 |
0.825 |
$9,900.00 |
$-409.98 |
-4.0% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
10,000 |
0.865 |
$8,650.10 |
$350.01 |
+4.2% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? |
No |
7,089 |
0.919 |
$6,518.18 |
$464.32 |
+7.7% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House |
No |
6,633 |
0.885 |
$5,870.59 |
$360.38 |
+6.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
6,000 |
0.972 |
$5,828.97 |
$-6.98 |
-0.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other |
No |
5,000 |
0.996 |
$4,977.50 |
$7.50 |
+0.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? |
No |
5,000 |
0.989 |
$4,942.50 |
$2.50 |
+0.1% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
No |
4,606 |
0.905 |
$4,168.76 |
$958.97 |
+29.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
3,500 |
0.986 |
$3,449.25 |
$-11.75 |
-0.3% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
3,000 |
0.986 |
$2,956.51 |
$0.22 |
+0.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
3,411 |
0.865 |
$2,950.35 |
$119.39 |
+4.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
3,500 |
0.695 |
$2,432.14 |
$-207.85 |
-7.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? |
No |
4,564 |
0.495 |
$2,259.28 |
$84.13 |
+3.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
No |
4,673 |
0.475 |
$2,219.47 |
$312.52 |
+16.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.853 |
$2,131.25 |
$1,023.01 |
+92.3% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.975 |
$1,949.00 |
$13.00 |
+0.7% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
2,000 |
0.924 |
$1,849.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
17,663 |
0.095 |
$1,678.01 |
$-3,614.28 |
-68.3% |