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title1

0xbe74297ff19030f104ce1d538709f43b30eca70e
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$322
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$62
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+10.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
60%
41W / 27L · 116 open
Win Return (30d)
64%
108W / 60L · 16 open
Trades (30d)
184
across 57 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$11.94
avg win $24 · loss $9
Profit Factor
4.70
$410 won / $87 lost
Reward / Risk
2.76
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$7
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $40,976 · all-time $1,558,122

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.8% 1,331W/1,190L 1083 $150,591
⚽ Sports 36.2% 21W/37L 133 $7,032
🏛 Politics 16.7% 1W/5L 25 $2,823
💵 Economy 66.7% 10W/5L 25 $2,020
🎬 Culture 33.3% 5W/10L 24 $2,623
₿ Crypto 12 $2,024
🤖 Tech 80.0% 4W/1L 10 $315

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 9,000 0.790 $7,114.50 $2,614.50 +58.1%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Yes 2,655 0.985 $2,613.84 $1,489.98 +132.6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9,000 0.209 $1,885.50 $-2,614.50 -58.1%
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6? No 740 0.984 $728.16 $219.92 +43.3%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", or "Cryptocurrency" during remarks in Las Vegas? No 601 0.935 $561.98 $-6.01 -1.1%
Will ON Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? No 560 0.985 $551.31 $10.28 +1.9%
Will Crisp Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? No 550 0.975 $535.98 $7.05 +1.3%
Will Meiko Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? No 530 0.975 $516.49 $10.97 +2.2%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by August 31? No 467 0.960 $448.18 $4.67 +1.1%
Will Vulcan Penta in LCS Split 3 2026? No 451 0.969 $437.02 $4.06 +0.9%
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No 505 0.655 $330.57 $50.43 +18.0%
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Yes 494 0.630 $311.50 $-46.73 -13.0%
Will "The Pitt" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? No 309 0.996 $307.76 $18.56 +6.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? Yes 280 0.935 $261.80 $-0.76 -0.3%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by August 31? No 260 0.950 $247.00 $10.00 +4.2%
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No 349 0.660 $230.03 $40.95 +21.7%
Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? No 319 0.645 $205.75 $29.63 +16.8%
Will Jwei Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? Yes 400 0.489 $195.80 $175.40 +859.8%
Will Cryogen Penta in LCS Split 3 2026? No 188 0.975 $183.24 $2.43 +1.3%
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No 345 0.520 $179.40 $-48.95 -21.4%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by August 31? No 184 0.970 $178.01 $40.06 +29.0%
Will KeepBest Gaming be a 2027 VCT CN partner team? No 240 0.740 $177.59 $-48.00 -21.3%
Will Booking (BKNG) Q2 gross bookings be above $51B? Yes 351 0.500 $175.49 $-52.02 -22.9%
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by August 31? No 175 0.966 $169.05 $5.30 +3.2%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026? Yes 225 0.717 $161.11 $-45.71 -22.1%