PnL (30d)

−$152

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$154

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-8.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

23%

11W / 37L · 100 open

Win Return (30d)

57%

84W / 64L

Trades (30d)

148

across 45 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$8.01

avg win $14 · loss $14

Profit Factor

0.27

$56 won / $208 lost

Reward / Risk

1.01

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$48

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	22.9% 11W/37L	45	$3,906
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/2L	4	$76

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	150	0.745	$111.75	$9.75	+9.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	84	0.895	$75.27	$16.07	+27.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	86	0.785	$67.22	$13.66	+25.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	75	0.785	$58.88	$8.62	+17.2%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	41	0.940	$38.54	$6.97	+22.1%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	40	0.610	$24.40	$6.80	+38.6%
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	29	0.645	$18.70	$-1.30	-6.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	26	0.710	$18.18	$-2.82	-13.4%
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	30	0.565	$16.94	$0.45	+2.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	92	0.155	$14.25	$3.93	+38.1%
Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	20	0.665	$13.30	$-0.50	-3.6%
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	10	0.350	$3.50	$-0.40	-10.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	106	0.033	$3.45	$-0.79	-18.6%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	50	0.034	$1.70	$-3.30	-66.0%
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	16	0.072	$1.18	$0.37	+45.0%
Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	23	0.036	$0.83	$0.67	+414.2%
Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	30	0.025	$0.75	$0.31	+70.5%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	200	0.001	$0.10	$-2.70	-96.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	40	0.002	$0.06	$-15.94	-99.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	89	0.001	$0.04	$-23.66	-99.8%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	85	0.001	$0.04	$-1.06	-96.2%