PnL (30d)

−$51

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$6

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-49.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

57%

8W / 6L · 16 open

Win Return (30d)

61%

17W / 11L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

30

across 27 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

−$4.65

avg win $4 · loss $15

Profit Factor

0.33

$25 won / $76 lost

Reward / Risk

0.27

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$9

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	57.1% 8W/6L	27	$192
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	11	$66
💵 Economy	50.0% 1W/1L	3	$15
🎬 Culture	—	2	$10
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$5
🔬 Science	—	1	$10

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

44 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	29	0.750	$21.73	$-3.27	-13.1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	22	0.925	$20.56	$0.56	+2.8%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026?	Yes	26	0.605	$15.58	$-4.42	-22.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	16	0.959	$15.30	$0.30	+2.0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	27	0.545	$14.86	$-5.14	-25.7%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	56	0.240	$13.40	$-26.60	-66.5%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	12	0.915	$11.44	$1.44	+14.4%
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	12	0.951	$11.37	$0.37	+3.4%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	No	11	0.955	$10.86	$0.86	+8.6%
New pandemic in 2026?	No	11	0.935	$10.27	$0.27	+2.7%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	10	0.981	$10.16	$0.16	+1.6%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	Yes	135	0.075	$10.15	$-24.85	-71.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	19	0.500	$9.62	$-0.38	-3.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21	0.360	$7.50	$-7.50	-50.0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	8	0.790	$6.43	$-0.57	-8.1%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026?	Yes	23	0.280	$6.32	$-3.68	-36.8%
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	10	0.584	$6.11	$1.11	+22.2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	65	0.085	$5.48	$-14.52	-72.6%
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 1.0%?	No	5	0.998	$5.37	$0.37	+7.4%
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	No	5	0.969	$5.08	$0.08	+1.5%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	7	0.702	$5.08	$0.08	+1.5%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	53	0.095	$5.07	$-4.93	-49.3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	76	0.065	$4.96	$-14.93	-75.1%
Another pandemic before GTA VI?	No	10	0.500	$4.90	$-0.10	-2.0%
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	10	0.500	$4.90	$-0.10	-2.0%