| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
463,254 |
0.935 |
$433,142.31 |
$84,602.65 |
+24.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
370,470 |
0.835 |
$309,342.29 |
$36,682.81 |
+13.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
113,949 |
0.785 |
$89,450.31 |
$38,531.77 |
+75.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
102,648 |
0.835 |
$85,711.44 |
$-2,795.22 |
-3.2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
83,120 |
0.945 |
$78,548.26 |
$14,527.52 |
+22.7% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
61,397 |
0.905 |
$55,564.65 |
$9,088.23 |
+19.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
71,067 |
0.685 |
$48,681.21 |
$20,677.93 |
+73.8% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
51,244 |
0.855 |
$43,813.54 |
$10,273.38 |
+30.6% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
48,790 |
0.852 |
$41,569.41 |
$10,672.16 |
+34.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
40,902 |
0.960 |
$39,265.65 |
$53.21 |
+0.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
56,049 |
0.615 |
$34,470.03 |
$3,954.69 |
+13.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
32,903 |
0.895 |
$29,448.52 |
$4,805.24 |
+19.5% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
33,595 |
0.823 |
$27,631.53 |
$10,430.04 |
+60.6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
33,374 |
0.820 |
$27,366.48 |
$5,281.86 |
+23.9% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
37,352 |
0.705 |
$26,333.40 |
$6,231.64 |
+31.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
56,175 |
0.365 |
$20,504.00 |
$3,342.71 |
+19.5% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
16,122 |
0.895 |
$14,429.20 |
$2,376.92 |
+19.7% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
14,912 |
0.905 |
$13,495.38 |
$1,259.01 |
+10.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
24,969 |
0.520 |
$12,983.68 |
$2,791.09 |
+27.4% |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? |
No |
13,236 |
0.905 |
$11,978.18 |
$3,094.35 |
+34.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
24,786 |
0.470 |
$11,649.45 |
$3,604.32 |
+44.8% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
43,255 |
0.265 |
$11,462.60 |
$74.61 |
+0.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
17,081 |
0.625 |
$10,675.72 |
$838.63 |
+8.5% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
9,005 |
0.962 |
$8,658.41 |
$627.33 |
+7.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
15,804 |
0.545 |
$8,613.27 |
$1,557.74 |
+22.1% |