| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
61 |
0.625 |
$38.33 |
$23.33 |
+155.5% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
28 |
0.775 |
$21.53 |
$11.53 |
+115.3% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
35 |
0.525 |
$18.49 |
$8.49 |
+84.9% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
22 |
0.785 |
$17.07 |
$7.07 |
+70.7% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
33 |
0.485 |
$16.17 |
$6.17 |
+61.7% |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
Yes |
20 |
0.715 |
$14.59 |
$4.59 |
+45.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
59 |
0.245 |
$14.41 |
$4.41 |
+44.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
22 |
0.655 |
$14.24 |
$4.24 |
+42.4% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
19 |
0.715 |
$13.49 |
$3.49 |
+34.9% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
18 |
0.745 |
$13.30 |
$3.30 |
+33.0% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
No |
26 |
0.490 |
$12.89 |
$2.89 |
+28.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
16 |
0.785 |
$12.87 |
$2.87 |
+28.7% |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
Yes |
26 |
0.485 |
$12.76 |
$2.76 |
+27.6% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
27 |
0.460 |
$12.25 |
$2.25 |
+22.5% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? |
No |
15 |
0.825 |
$12.13 |
$2.13 |
+21.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
16 |
0.715 |
$11.53 |
$1.53 |
+15.3% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
No |
15 |
0.740 |
$11.33 |
$1.33 |
+13.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
18 |
0.625 |
$10.96 |
$0.96 |
+9.6% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.535 |
$10.92 |
$0.92 |
+9.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
16 |
0.675 |
$10.71 |
$0.71 |
+7.1% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? |
Yes |
16 |
0.685 |
$10.70 |
$0.70 |
+7.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
16 |
0.665 |
$10.56 |
$0.56 |
+5.6% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
50 |
0.209 |
$10.53 |
$0.53 |
+5.3% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.680 |
$10.30 |
$0.30 |
+3.0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
112 |
0.090 |
$10.17 |
$0.17 |
+1.7% |