PnL (30d)

+$481

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$4,607

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

89%

40W / 5L · 232 open

Win Return (30d)

80%

222W / 55L

Trades (30d)

277

across 28 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

+$68.73

avg win $116 · loss $217

Profit Factor

3.21

$698 won / $217 lost

Reward / Risk

0.54

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	88.9% 40W/5L	28	$41,581
🏛 Politics	—	2	$539

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	No	19,000	0.975	$18,515.50	$2,745.50	+17.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	7,007	0.986	$6,905.28	$178.18	+2.6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6,958	0.931	$6,477.86	$757.05	+13.2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6,277	0.560	$3,515.13	$-473.53	-11.9%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	No	2,457	0.940	$2,309.35	$735.14	+46.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	2,396	0.935	$2,239.80	$83.85	+3.9%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	3,329	0.635	$2,113.93	$-111.07	-5.0%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	Yes	3,512	0.185	$649.79	$-170.16	-20.8%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	660	0.720	$475.52	$152.58	+47.2%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	No	418	0.988	$412.89	$174.49	+73.2%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	508	0.740	$375.82	$127.04	+51.1%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	2,018	0.155	$312.77	$-290.78	-48.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	500	0.482	$241.25	$2.75	+1.2%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	2,864	0.075	$214.78	$-190.37	-47.0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	499	0.275	$137.29	$-27.46	-16.7%
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	No	95	0.855	$81.64	$6.21	+8.2%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	150	0.455	$68.25	$-8.25	-10.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	125	0.440	$55.08	$-1.26	-2.2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	888	0.040	$35.51	$-64.26	-64.4%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	177	0.155	$27.50	$-30.87	-52.9%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?	Yes	41	0.075	$3.07	$-3.49	-53.1%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11	0.230	$2.53	$-0.22	-8.0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	Yes	10	0.078	$0.75	$-0.40	-35.0%