PnL (30d)

+$12

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$58

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

45%

136W / 168L · 647 open

Win Return (30d)

39%

344W / 543L · 64 open

Trades (30d)

951

across 241 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$0.20

avg win $1 · loss $0

Profit Factor

1.68

$31 won / $18 lost

Reward / Risk

2.67

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.7% 136W/168L	241	$6,826
🏛 Politics	—	3	$28

Open positions

61 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	5	0.830	$4.19	$0.15	+3.8%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	16	0.250	$3.89	$1.24	+47.1%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	Yes	4	0.974	$3.49	$0.79	+29.3%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	5	0.560	$2.87	$1.59	+124.0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	41	0.052	$2.13	$0.51	+31.2%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	6	0.335	$2.03	$-0.03	-1.5%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	61	0.030	$1.86	$0.52	+38.7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	73	0.025	$1.84	$-0.19	-9.1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	307	0.006	$1.84	$-0.76	-29.2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	155	0.009	$1.32	$0.08	+6.8%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	107	0.011	$1.23	$0.27	+27.8%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	39	0.029	$1.14	$0.58	+105.9%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Yes	8	0.145	$1.12	$-0.66	-37.0%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	5	0.200	$1.01	$0.10	+11.1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	92	0.011	$0.96	$-0.55	-36.2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	36	0.025	$0.91	$0.09	+10.5%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6	0.140	$0.89	$-0.52	-36.9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	5	0.145	$0.73	$-0.53	-42.0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	22	0.025	$0.54	$0.06	+11.4%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	14	0.037	$0.51	$0.16	+47.8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	35	0.015	$0.51	$-0.19	-27.5%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	34	0.015	$0.50	$0.19	+62.4%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	5	0.080	$0.39	$-0.29	-42.8%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	20	0.015	$0.29	$0.01	+3.5%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	6	0.048	$0.27	$-0.35	-56.8%