| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? |
No |
1,353 |
0.865 |
$1,170.16 |
$4.66 |
+0.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? |
Yes |
1,048 |
0.908 |
$951.71 |
$170.78 |
+21.9% |
| Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? |
Yes |
1,885 |
0.408 |
$769.03 |
$25.37 |
+3.4% |
| Will Trump deport 400-500k people? |
Yes |
981 |
0.605 |
$593.74 |
$357.05 |
+150.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? |
Yes |
654 |
0.885 |
$579.12 |
$130.91 |
+29.2% |
| Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? |
Yes |
1,220 |
0.470 |
$573.49 |
$520.08 |
+973.8% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? |
No |
576 |
0.860 |
$495.37 |
$71.13 |
+16.8% |
| Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? |
No |
544 |
0.810 |
$440.25 |
$256.11 |
+139.1% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
532 |
0.815 |
$433.29 |
$37.58 |
+9.5% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? |
Yes |
397 |
0.930 |
$369.54 |
$2.88 |
+0.8% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? |
No |
669 |
0.525 |
$351.19 |
$62.97 |
+21.8% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? |
No |
431 |
0.790 |
$340.49 |
$46.05 |
+15.6% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
4,797 |
0.068 |
$323.77 |
$-619.48 |
-65.7% |
| Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31? |
Yes |
355 |
0.905 |
$320.87 |
$117.80 |
+58.0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5,884 |
0.043 |
$255.37 |
$-5.34 |
-2.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? |
No |
448 |
0.475 |
$212.63 |
$-77.84 |
-26.8% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
242 |
0.785 |
$190.21 |
$81.17 |
+74.4% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? |
No |
203 |
0.865 |
$175.46 |
$41.06 |
+30.5% |
| Will Trump deport 500-600k people? |
Yes |
976 |
0.132 |
$128.84 |
$29.44 |
+29.6% |
| Will Trump deport 300-400k people? |
Yes |
677 |
0.155 |
$104.97 |
$-76.06 |
-42.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,075 |
0.095 |
$102.10 |
$-55.97 |
-35.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
No |
442 |
0.223 |
$98.36 |
$-41.22 |
-29.5% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.086 |
$85.50 |
$26.50 |
+44.9% |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
365 |
0.200 |
$73.02 |
$1.44 |
+2.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
75 |
0.923 |
$69.22 |
$-0.79 |
-1.1% |