PnL (30d)

−$3,002

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2,990

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

48%

909W / 995L · 11,734 open

Win Return (30d)

47%

6,439W / 7,194L · 5 open

Trades (30d)

13,638

across 120 markets · ~114 per market

EV / position

−$83.39

avg win $33 · loss $188

Profit Factor

0.16

$569 won / $3,571 lost

Reward / Risk

0.18

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	26.9% 2,346W/6,377L	167	$226,918
🏛 Politics	100.0% 2W/0L	45	$8,792
🎬 Culture	—	3	$151
🔬 Science	—	1	$152

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

151 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	583,331	0.040	$23,041.56	$-22,403.40	-49.3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	73,687	0.255	$18,790.30	$-5,825.51	-23.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	119,181	0.155	$18,473.10	$-8,333.63	-31.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	24,849	0.355	$8,821.36	$-1,618.18	-15.5%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	39,640	0.180	$7,135.14	$-5,674.70	-44.3%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	54,280	0.125	$6,785.06	$-2,586.14	-27.6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	52,830	0.095	$5,018.87	$-4,766.08	-48.7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	44,404	0.074	$3,285.89	$-2,160.56	-39.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	40,187	0.075	$3,013.99	$-200.93	-6.2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	49,921	0.055	$2,745.65	$-3,030.55	-52.5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	10,518	0.185	$1,945.76	$-427.33	-18.0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	19,982	0.095	$1,898.32	$-584.00	-23.5%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	189,413	0.006	$1,231.19	$-422.77	-25.6%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	9,612	0.125	$1,201.49	$-964.44	-44.5%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	88,481	0.013	$1,106.02	$-2,877.94	-72.2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	5,215	0.209	$1,092.61	$-11.40	-1.0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	189,016	0.005	$945.08	$-163.12	-14.7%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11,742	0.075	$880.62	$-730.43	-45.3%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	131,109	0.006	$852.21	$-114.72	-11.9%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	340,751	0.003	$851.88	$-4,085.61	-82.7%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	548,447	0.002	$822.67	$-274.22	-25.0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	8,520	0.095	$809.35	$-770.52	-48.8%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	77,003	0.009	$654.53	$38.50	+6.2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	115,547	0.005	$635.51	$-207.87	-24.6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	15,466	0.034	$518.11	$-1,532.30	-74.7%