| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
19,318 |
0.985 |
$19,018.27 |
$8.87 |
+0.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
18,000 |
1.000 |
$17,991.00 |
$28.06 |
+0.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? |
No |
9,874 |
0.975 |
$9,621.83 |
$35.22 |
+0.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
9,400 |
1.000 |
$9,395.30 |
$36.11 |
+0.4% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
9,855 |
0.924 |
$9,106.41 |
$26.36 |
+0.3% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
6,000 |
0.964 |
$5,781.00 |
$-9.00 |
-0.2% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
5,700 |
0.977 |
$5,568.90 |
$72.32 |
+1.3% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
3,720 |
0.995 |
$3,699.19 |
$78.17 |
+2.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,500 |
0.989 |
$3,459.75 |
$-1.75 |
-0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,200 |
0.963 |
$3,081.60 |
$1.00 |
+0.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
2,800 |
0.976 |
$2,731.39 |
$-12.59 |
-0.5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
4,600 |
0.515 |
$2,368.98 |
$117.03 |
+5.2% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
3,284 |
0.625 |
$2,052.31 |
$69.11 |
+3.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
1,600 |
0.986 |
$1,576.80 |
$-4.20 |
-0.3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1,600 |
0.979 |
$1,565.59 |
$64.80 |
+4.3% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
1,400 |
0.940 |
$1,315.99 |
$94.00 |
+7.7% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
No |
900 |
0.971 |
$873.90 |
$42.90 |
+5.2% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
874 |
0.982 |
$858.59 |
$20.33 |
+2.4% |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? |
No |
850 |
0.894 |
$760.22 |
$16.62 |
+2.2% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
1,276 |
0.585 |
$746.35 |
$154.98 |
+26.2% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
1,200 |
0.535 |
$642.00 |
$-102.00 |
-13.7% |
| Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? |
No |
579 |
0.974 |
$563.51 |
$13.52 |
+2.5% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
400 |
0.993 |
$397.00 |
$-0.20 |
-0.1% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.990 |
$395.80 |
$5.00 |
+1.3% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
400 |
0.985 |
$393.80 |
$11.00 |
+2.9% |