| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
3,041 |
0.870 |
$2,645.34 |
$709.28 |
+36.6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5,050 |
0.455 |
$2,297.97 |
$-390.38 |
-14.5% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,694 |
0.585 |
$2,161.09 |
$-333.90 |
-13.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
2,500 |
0.835 |
$2,087.50 |
$108.33 |
+5.5% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
4,500 |
0.445 |
$2,002.50 |
$22.50 |
+1.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
2,202 |
0.835 |
$1,838.34 |
$739.70 |
+67.3% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
1,700 |
0.983 |
$1,671.10 |
$120.95 |
+7.8% |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,344 |
0.260 |
$1,649.47 |
$-1,410.46 |
-46.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,500 |
0.963 |
$1,444.51 |
$297.69 |
+26.0% |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,714 |
0.800 |
$1,371.41 |
$-51.43 |
-3.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
1,505 |
0.835 |
$1,256.67 |
$314.38 |
+33.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.785 |
$1,020.67 |
$277.04 |
+37.3% |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,157 |
0.770 |
$891.13 |
$3.43 |
+0.4% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
1,212 |
0.685 |
$830.23 |
$135.95 |
+19.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,200 |
0.655 |
$786.01 |
$-54.00 |
-6.4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.675 |
$675.02 |
$135.00 |
+25.0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.990 |
$494.60 |
$79.73 |
+19.2% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,994 |
0.235 |
$468.57 |
$14.91 |
+3.3% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
500 |
0.905 |
$452.50 |
$1.50 |
+0.3% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.285 |
$284.90 |
$-135.10 |
-32.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
1,700 |
0.155 |
$263.50 |
$-25.50 |
-8.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
No |
350 |
0.710 |
$248.50 |
$3.50 |
+1.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.775 |
$232.50 |
$37.50 |
+19.2% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
551 |
0.215 |
$118.51 |
$-168.12 |
-58.7% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
250 |
0.460 |
$114.88 |
$-1.12 |
-1.0% |