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Trader leaderboard/NonceChaser

NonceChaser

0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$12,817
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$13,741
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
36%
140W / 251L · 955 open
Win Return (30d)
66%
886W / 458L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
1,346
across 182 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
+$346.40
avg win $630 · loss $420
Profit Factor
4.05
$17,013 won / $4,196 lost
Reward / Risk
1.50
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$718
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $605,094 · all-time $16,984,972

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 37.2% 504W/851L 529 $1,056,094
🏛 Politics 16.1% 44W/230L 105 $111,972
🎬 Culture 38 $61,975
🤖 Tech 24 $7,077
💵 Economy 100.0% 64W/0L 8 $9,449
⚽ Sports 5 $3,885
🔬 Science 1 $8,443
₿ Crypto 1 $3,207

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 223,000 0.555 $123,765.00 $12,265.00 +11.0%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 223,000 0.445 $99,235.00 $-12,265.00 -11.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 51,000 0.978 $49,852.49 $823.55 +1.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 52,000 0.925 $48,099.98 $4,260.05 +9.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 42,000 0.845 $35,489.96 $3,996.46 +12.7%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? Yes 34,847 0.970 $33,801.15 $4,319.16 +14.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 35,999 0.935 $33,658.89 $1,529.95 +4.8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 46,000 0.675 $31,049.96 $3,287.98 +11.8%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 29,079 0.984 $28,613.93 $2,102.86 +7.9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 29,892 0.905 $27,052.29 $2,214.13 +8.9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 27,717 0.905 $25,083.95 $4,102.04 +19.6%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 23,449 0.865 $20,283.25 $621.39 +3.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 21,055 0.962 $20,244.32 $2,404.01 +13.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No 30,000 0.655 $19,649.99 $860.04 +4.6%
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? No 19,256 0.964 $18,563.03 $1,776.29 +10.6%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No 20,193 0.845 $17,063.02 $5,107.94 +42.7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 18,000 0.945 $17,010.00 $630.00 +3.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 18,000 0.825 $14,849.93 $-899.82 -5.7%
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No 20,294 0.705 $14,307.45 $15.40 +0.1%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No 33,952 0.396 $13,427.95 $3,910.81 +41.1%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? No 14,921 0.895 $13,354.12 $7,315.14 +121.1%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 14,117 0.919 $12,980.90 $1,108.47 +9.3%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 12,411 0.964 $11,957.90 $2,225.62 +22.9%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 10,283 0.905 $9,305.88 $1,696.46 +22.3%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No 9,000 0.983 $8,846.99 $282.01 +3.3%