Log in
Trader leaderboard/apple-pi

apple-pi

0xaf2383b66194112d57ac196b00ab25f78c17aa95
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$104
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$25
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+1.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
50%
3W / 3L · 15 open
Win Return (30d)
86%
18W / 3L
Trades (30d)
21
across 6 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$20.89
avg win $81 · loss $19
Profit Factor
2.79
$163 won / $58 lost
Reward / Risk
4.18
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$36
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $5,663,520

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 81.2% 13W/3L 13 $14,211
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/1L 1 $1,763

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

17 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 15,029 0.615 $9,242.82 $-2,721.27 -22.7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 7,698 0.265 $2,039.98 $-2,959.34 -59.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 1,111 0.976 $1,083.67 $217.18 +25.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 1,111 0.959 $1,064.88 $242.75 +29.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? No 1,000 0.985 $984.50 $11.50 +1.2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 1,000 0.875 $875.00 $29.00 +3.4%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 2,505 0.275 $689.01 $-63.47 -8.4%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes 600 0.705 $423.00 $55.00 +14.9%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 199 0.785 $156.43 $78.72 +101.3%
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No 200 0.680 $136.00 $-28.00 -17.1%
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 100 0.932 $93.20 $2.20 +2.4%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 100 0.685 $68.50 $14.50 +26.9%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 83 0.820 $68.33 $15.00 +28.1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 600 0.095 $57.00 $-267.00 -82.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes 100 0.400 $40.00 $-13.00 -24.5%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 100 0.105 $10.50 $-7.50 -41.7%
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No 1 0.642 $0.71 $-0.24 -25.5%