| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
Yes |
25 |
0.855 |
$21.80 |
$-0.38 |
-1.7% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
54 |
0.340 |
$18.24 |
$-1.11 |
-5.7% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.625 |
$12.31 |
$0.73 |
+6.3% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? |
No |
16 |
0.725 |
$11.42 |
$-0.08 |
-0.7% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
12 |
0.835 |
$9.88 |
$-0.30 |
-2.9% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.915 |
$6.13 |
$0.64 |
+11.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
6 |
0.895 |
$5.47 |
$1.81 |
+49.6% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? |
No |
5 |
0.805 |
$4.26 |
$-0.24 |
-5.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
8 |
0.455 |
$3.82 |
$0.21 |
+5.8% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? |
No |
3 |
0.952 |
$2.92 |
$0.14 |
+5.2% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.540 |
$2.78 |
$0.05 |
+1.9% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
3 |
0.820 |
$2.11 |
$0.36 |
+20.6% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? |
No |
3 |
0.760 |
$1.95 |
$-0.05 |
-2.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
11 |
0.170 |
$1.93 |
$-1.02 |
-34.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.205 |
$1.32 |
$-1.06 |
-44.6% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
Yes |
3 |
0.370 |
$1.18 |
$-0.16 |
-11.9% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
No |
4 |
0.265 |
$0.97 |
$-0.31 |
-24.3% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
2 |
0.355 |
$0.83 |
$-0.22 |
-21.1% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? |
Yes |
2 |
0.195 |
$0.47 |
$-1.00 |
-68.0% |