PnL (30d)

−$50

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$3,310

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-16.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

12%

1W / 7L · 8 open

Win Return (30d)

38%

6W / 10L

Trades (30d)

16

across 8 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$25.07

avg win $3 · loss $53

Profit Factor

0.06

$3 won / $53 lost

Reward / Risk

0.06

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$53

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.9% 22W/27L	24	$27,739
🏛 Politics	12.5% 1W/7L	7	$24,986
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/7L	2	$513
🤖 Tech	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$20

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	15,000	0.145	$2,174.97	$-5,715.41	-72.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	19,706	0.065	$1,280.87	$-2,315.02	-64.4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	38,272	0.019	$746.30	$-768.42	-50.7%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	2,479	0.095	$235.48	$-484.51	-67.3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	3,221	0.070	$225.50	$-161.07	-41.7%
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	178	0.650	$115.89	$30.68	+36.0%
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	142	0.385	$54.76	$-74.24	-57.6%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	214	0.230	$49.30	$-63.70	-56.4%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	1,521	0.029	$43.36	$11.41	+35.7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	388	0.075	$29.07	$-21.32	-42.3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	2,635	0.009	$22.40	$9.40	+72.3%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	No	60	0.358	$21.66	$-22.34	-50.8%
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31?	Yes	35	0.425	$14.88	$11.72	+372.2%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	58	0.210	$12.23	$-11.06	-47.5%
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3?	No	35	0.165	$5.73	$-2.60	-31.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	112	0.038	$4.33	$-5.67	-56.7%
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	18	0.200	$3.65	$-2.24	-38.0%
Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?	Yes	9	0.146	$1.31	$0.58	+80.2%
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	Yes	5	0.175	$0.88	$-0.62	-41.7%