| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
14,346 |
0.964 |
$13,822.77 |
$2,017.34 |
+17.1% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
13,782 |
0.987 |
$13,596.10 |
$210.76 |
+1.6% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
17,492 |
0.715 |
$12,506.95 |
$3,635.64 |
+41.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
10,877 |
0.987 |
$10,730.24 |
$686.46 |
+6.8% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
No |
10,027 |
0.980 |
$9,821.00 |
$319.98 |
+3.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
10,717 |
0.700 |
$7,501.63 |
$750.14 |
+11.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
7,451 |
0.785 |
$5,848.84 |
$2,246.55 |
+62.4% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
6,461 |
0.885 |
$5,718.18 |
$1,343.39 |
+30.7% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? |
No |
5,834 |
0.923 |
$5,387.87 |
$-72.50 |
-1.3% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
5,919 |
0.905 |
$5,356.41 |
$513.07 |
+10.6% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
6,817 |
0.675 |
$4,601.50 |
$4,401.00 |
+2195.1% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
7,828 |
0.580 |
$4,540.10 |
$620.11 |
+15.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
7,416 |
0.552 |
$4,097.59 |
$-250.19 |
-5.8% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5,148 |
0.755 |
$3,886.61 |
$-35.93 |
-0.9% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
4,079 |
0.800 |
$3,264.92 |
$193.44 |
+6.3% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
7,086 |
0.460 |
$3,256.12 |
$-195.59 |
-5.7% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
3,530 |
0.855 |
$3,018.31 |
$19.08 |
+0.6% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? |
No |
4,520 |
0.645 |
$2,915.30 |
$-519.58 |
-15.1% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,932 |
0.958 |
$2,807.84 |
$33.72 |
+1.2% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
3,273 |
0.825 |
$2,698.54 |
$133.69 |
+5.2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5,273 |
0.455 |
$2,399.20 |
$-305.78 |
-11.3% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,436 |
0.985 |
$2,398.68 |
$92.92 |
+4.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
2,411 |
0.989 |
$2,383.50 |
$938.23 |
+64.9% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
No |
2,543 |
0.925 |
$2,352.66 |
$172.20 |
+7.9% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
2,678 |
0.854 |
$2,285.67 |
$-20.09 |
-0.9% |