| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,285 |
0.460 |
$590.61 |
$90.62 |
+18.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
685 |
0.816 |
$558.62 |
$58.57 |
+11.7% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,632 |
0.209 |
$551.32 |
$51.32 |
+10.3% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
617 |
0.790 |
$487.42 |
$-12.64 |
-2.5% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
817 |
0.540 |
$441.59 |
$-58.42 |
-11.7% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,859 |
0.184 |
$342.94 |
$-157.06 |
-31.4% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? |
No |
232 |
0.435 |
$101.13 |
$-61.61 |
-37.9% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.345 |
$34.49 |
$-8.01 |
-18.8% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.635 |
$31.75 |
$-3.58 |
-10.1% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.540 |
$27.00 |
$-4.75 |
-15.0% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? |
No |
40 |
0.645 |
$25.80 |
$-4.87 |
-15.9% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.725 |
$14.50 |
$-2.70 |
-15.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? |
No |
91 |
0.125 |
$11.37 |
$-5.27 |
-31.6% |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.095 |
$9.50 |
$-51.50 |
-84.4% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.045 |
$9.00 |
$-125.00 |
-93.3% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.375 |
$7.50 |
$-6.50 |
-46.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
Yes |
5 |
0.777 |
$3.89 |
$-0.92 |
-19.1% |
| Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.075 |
$1.50 |
$-7.20 |
-82.8% |
| Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Yes |
100 |
0.011 |
$1.15 |
$-29.95 |
-96.3% |
| Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.055 |
$1.10 |
$-0.50 |
-31.2% |
| Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.051 |
$1.02 |
$-0.58 |
-36.4% |
| Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
Yes |
20 |
0.040 |
$0.79 |
$-2.61 |
-76.8% |
| Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027? |
Yes |
20 |
0.039 |
$0.78 |
$-1.22 |
-61.0% |
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
120 |
0.006 |
$0.72 |
$-39.77 |
-98.2% |
| Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Yes |
50 |
0.006 |
$0.30 |
$-8.42 |
-96.6% |