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Trader leaderboard/anciano

anciano

0xa8b7f8b34185e9cc62c471e1d353595148a3ee3c
PnL (30d)
+$7,731
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$881
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+4.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
54%
889W / 762L · 2,674 open
Win Return (30d)
62%
2,681W / 1,625L · 19 open
Trades (30d)
4,325
across 379 markets · ~11 per market
EV / position
+$53.31
avg win $258 · loss $325
Profit Factor
1.47
$24,282 won / $16,552 lost
Reward / Risk
0.80
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$98
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $49,753 · all-time $21,434,469

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.8% 889W/762L 379 $259,515
⚽ Sports 75 $19,504
🏛 Politics 92.9% 13W/1L 50 $17,802
🎬 Culture 10 $5,708
💵 Economy 92.9% 13W/1L 3 $750
🔬 Science 1 $1,650

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Washington Wizards be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? No 9,152 0.955 $8,740.12 $49.08 +0.6%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 6,003 0.924 $5,549.46 $24.90 +0.5%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? No 4,535 0.768 $3,482.87 $-234.90 -6.3%
Will the Miami Heat be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? No 3,599 0.910 $3,275.49 $35.88 +1.1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 4,080 0.540 $2,205.09 $-31.76 -1.4%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5,250 0.405 $2,126.25 $12.28 +0.6%
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? No 2,510 0.720 $1,807.35 $-8.45 -0.5%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 1,971 0.790 $1,558.09 $-17.53 -1.1%
Will Drake Maye win the 2026 NFL MVP? No 1,700 0.915 $1,555.46 $-8.99 -0.6%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 1,696 0.866 $1,469.15 $8.13 +0.6%
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? No 2,201 0.555 $1,221.65 $-4.50 -0.4%
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 1,165 0.974 $1,134.14 $14.57 +1.3%
Will New England Patriots win the 2026 AFC East? Yes 2,697 0.400 $1,078.83 $126.68 +13.3%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 2,400 0.445 $1,068.00 $-166.08 -13.5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 1,197 0.865 $1,035.77 $9.77 +1.0%
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? No 1,066 0.955 $1,017.42 $12.09 +1.2%
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? No 1,185 0.835 $989.64 $12.15 +1.2%
Will Dak Prescott win the 2026 NFL MVP? No 1,050 0.924 $970.20 $-10.50 -1.1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 2,046 0.455 $930.87 $-17.48 -1.8%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 2,250 0.405 $911.25 $-23.47 -2.5%
Will the Sacramento Kings make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? No 862 0.965 $831.41 $23.73 +2.9%
Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2026 AFC South? No 1,135 0.700 $794.36 $23.40 +3.0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? No 780 0.966 $752.91 $30.85 +4.3%
Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP? No 781 0.915 $714.61 $-3.09 -0.4%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes 882 0.800 $706.00 $321.63 +83.7%