| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
851 |
0.997 |
$848.39 |
$71.14 |
+9.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.989 |
$197.70 |
$11.70 |
+6.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
211 |
0.710 |
$149.89 |
$-6.33 |
-4.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.690 |
$68.99 |
$6.99 |
+11.3% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
181 |
0.365 |
$66.19 |
$-49.16 |
-42.6% |
| Will Uber say "Waymo" during earnings call? |
Yes |
50 |
0.920 |
$46.00 |
$5.50 |
+13.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.230 |
$46.00 |
$4.00 |
+9.5% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.395 |
$39.50 |
$-14.74 |
-27.2% |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? |
Yes |
60 |
0.600 |
$36.00 |
$-2.40 |
-6.2% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.595 |
$35.70 |
$31.96 |
+855.0% |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? |
No |
50 |
0.695 |
$34.74 |
$3.74 |
+12.1% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
Yes |
500 |
0.065 |
$32.50 |
$-12.50 |
-27.8% |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? |
No |
61 |
0.530 |
$32.33 |
$-0.03 |
-0.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
150 |
0.215 |
$32.25 |
$-20.25 |
-38.6% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
125 |
0.255 |
$31.87 |
$-1.87 |
-5.6% |
| Will Trump say "COVID" or "Warp Speed" during remarks in Las Vegas? |
No |
50 |
0.560 |
$27.99 |
$-6.00 |
-17.6% |
| Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? |
Yes |
200 |
0.125 |
$25.00 |
$-1.00 |
-3.8% |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
121 |
0.195 |
$23.54 |
$10.26 |
+77.3% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 4, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.950 |
$14.57 |
$1.23 |
+9.2% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.905 |
$13.85 |
$0.81 |
+6.2% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 19, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.900 |
$13.77 |
$0.74 |
+5.7% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.880 |
$13.46 |
$0.43 |
+3.3% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.875 |
$13.39 |
$0.35 |
+2.7% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 17, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.865 |
$13.27 |
$-0.07 |
-0.5% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 16, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.860 |
$13.19 |
$-0.15 |
-1.1% |