| Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
Yes |
3,075 |
0.200 |
$615.06 |
$-330.07 |
-34.9% |
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
No |
576 |
0.915 |
$526.67 |
$36.05 |
+7.3% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.159 |
$238.50 |
$150.67 |
+171.6% |
| Will there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? |
No |
266 |
0.520 |
$138.32 |
$58.52 |
+73.3% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? |
No |
223 |
0.535 |
$119.20 |
$18.94 |
+18.9% |
| Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings? |
Yes |
100 |
1.000 |
$100.04 |
$0.06 |
+0.1% |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
Yes |
333 |
0.300 |
$99.92 |
$3.26 |
+3.4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
1,167 |
0.075 |
$87.50 |
$-85.11 |
-49.3% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
Yes |
150 |
0.565 |
$84.81 |
$2.59 |
+3.2% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in July? |
Yes |
46 |
0.935 |
$43.38 |
$4.93 |
+12.8% |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
470 |
0.085 |
$39.95 |
$-184.95 |
-82.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
No |
410 |
0.080 |
$32.59 |
$5.18 |
+18.9% |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
65 |
0.425 |
$27.62 |
$8.82 |
+46.9% |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
No |
26 |
0.972 |
$25.63 |
$4.60 |
+21.9% |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
25 |
0.987 |
$24.66 |
$1.91 |
+8.4% |
| Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
No |
25 |
0.925 |
$23.12 |
$0.62 |
+2.8% |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
No |
33 |
0.700 |
$22.87 |
$4.90 |
+27.3% |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? |
No |
25 |
0.810 |
$20.25 |
$2.75 |
+15.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? |
Yes |
27 |
0.530 |
$14.32 |
$4.32 |
+43.2% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? |
No |
20 |
0.710 |
$14.20 |
$0.40 |
+2.9% |
| Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
No |
15 |
0.940 |
$14.10 |
$0.30 |
+2.2% |
| Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
No |
13 |
0.910 |
$11.98 |
$0.26 |
+2.2% |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
Yes |
61 |
0.115 |
$7.01 |
$-1.69 |
-19.5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,145 |
0.006 |
$6.87 |
$-50.80 |
-88.1% |
| Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
Yes |
43 |
0.155 |
$6.73 |
$3.61 |
+116.0% |