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Trader leaderboard/qcp14

qcp14

0xa76b7dc2d87b3b029ee67305c538547489198a50
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$227
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$10
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-17.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
35%
172W / 319L · 43 open
Win Return (30d)
38%
197W / 325L · 12 open
Trades (30d)
534
across 151 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$1.67
avg win $3 · loss $4
Profit Factor
0.41
$157 won / $384 lost
Reward / Risk
0.77
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$75
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,356 · all-time $171,310

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 48.4% 819W/873L 558 $7,087
🎬 Culture 50.8% 99W/96L 83 $1,456
🏛 Politics 50.5% 94W/92L 62 $645
🤖 Tech 57.1% 4W/3L 9 $33
⚽ Sports 3 $231

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

108 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 466 0.925 $430.89 $14.09 +3.4%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 176 0.350 $61.63 $2.88 +4.9%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 120 0.410 $49.29 $6.84 +16.1%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No 50 0.680 $33.67 $0.28 +0.8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by August 31, 2026? Yes 2,369 0.013 $31.98 $-15.12 -32.1%
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? No 52 0.570 $29.63 $-5.21 -14.9%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? No 49 0.595 $29.35 $0.64 +2.2%
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k? Yes 32 0.685 $22.10 $7.24 +48.7%
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? No 26 0.780 $20.65 $5.30 +34.5%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30? No 24 0.785 $18.63 $11.27 +153.2%
Trump on $250 bill this year? No 19 0.973 $18.36 $1.00 +5.8%
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 19 0.905 $17.63 $2.82 +19.1%
Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next YouTube video? Yes 22 0.765 $17.01 $4.78 +39.1%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? Yes 61 0.245 $14.94 $1.38 +10.2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by August 31, 2026? No 13 0.955 $12.68 $0.56 +4.6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026? No 13 0.996 $12.68 $0.86 +7.3%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No 13 0.905 $12.01 $-0.13 -1.1%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? No 13 0.885 $11.72 $0.44 +3.9%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes 65 0.165 $10.77 $-0.38 -3.4%
Will Team Liquid make a roster change before September? No 12 0.855 $10.52 $0.72 +7.4%
Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 12 0.775 $9.56 $0.18 +2.0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 10 0.955 $9.44 $7.96 +536.7%
LA28 Olympics run as scheduled? Yes 13 0.660 $8.63 $-3.39 -28.2%
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? Yes 28 0.295 $8.14 $-4.21 -34.1%
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau? Yes 12 0.660 $7.77 $1.65 +26.9%