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risk-manager

0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$0
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
+0.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
no 30d activity
Win Return (30d)
no 30d activity
Trades (30d)
920
across 4 markets · ~230 per market
EV / position
no settled positions
Profit Factor
no losses yet
Reward / Risk
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $273,147 · all-time $713,418,978

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.3% 8,172W/7,173L 80 $2,096,689
🏛 Politics 66.1% 1,088W/557L 19 $163,486
💵 Economy 66.1% 1,088W/557L 10 $112,677
⚽ Sports 2 $56
🤖 Tech 2 $2,967
🎬 Culture 2 $3,199

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

62 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 90,000 0.790 $71,145.00 $26,145.00 +58.1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 34,969 0.883 $30,895.28 $2,672.24 +9.5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 111,333 0.184 $20,540.86 $-13,872.26 -40.3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 90,000 0.209 $18,855.00 $-26,144.91 -58.1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2,035,037 0.009 $17,297.81 $1,017.52 +6.2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 14,916 0.875 $13,051.90 $560.29 +4.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 13,000 0.865 $11,244.99 $735.03 +7.0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 10,000 0.865 $8,650.34 $350.02 +4.2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 6,500 0.875 $5,687.50 $-2.50 -0.0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 6,068 0.825 $5,005.78 $-116.56 -2.3%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 5,000 0.968 $4,837.49 $397.50 +9.0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 8,658 0.485 $4,199.24 $-780.62 -15.7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 4,500 0.905 $4,072.47 $697.53 +20.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 30,000 0.075 $2,250.00 $-150.00 -6.2%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 5,000 0.445 $2,225.02 $1,250.55 +128.3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 1,500 0.964 $1,446.00 $126.00 +9.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 2,000 0.655 $1,309.99 $-84.99 -6.1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 19,158 0.065 $1,245.29 $-1,580.56 -55.9%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 782,018 0.002 $1,173.03 $-19.55 -1.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 1,574 0.665 $1,046.75 $-280.04 -21.1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 398,456 0.003 $996.14 $-1,394.20 -58.3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 250,000 0.003 $625.00 $-375.00 -37.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 1,000 0.615 $615.00 $-215.00 -25.9%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 6,247 0.085 $531.00 $31.24 +6.2%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 1,102 0.445 $490.42 $-5.51 -1.1%