| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
25,986 |
0.115 |
$2,988.38 |
$-749.59 |
-20.1% |
| Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
Yes |
8,241 |
0.140 |
$1,153.68 |
$-278.13 |
-19.4% |
| Will three people dissent the January Fed decision? |
No |
1,304 |
0.765 |
$997.91 |
$191.13 |
+23.7% |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? |
No |
1,213 |
0.685 |
$830.57 |
$-43.69 |
-5.0% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
No |
5,632 |
0.145 |
$816.63 |
$-88.67 |
-9.8% |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist in the US for 2026? |
Yes |
31,184 |
0.025 |
$764.01 |
$-2,098.86 |
-73.3% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? |
No |
1,140 |
0.520 |
$592.94 |
$-7.87 |
-1.3% |
| Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? |
No |
1,000 |
0.585 |
$585.00 |
$-15.00 |
-2.5% |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? |
No |
10,110 |
0.055 |
$556.03 |
$-720.48 |
-56.4% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? |
No |
1,546 |
0.355 |
$548.70 |
$-323.03 |
-37.1% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.155 |
$465.01 |
$-195.01 |
-29.5% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
6,036 |
0.075 |
$452.69 |
$30.18 |
+7.1% |
| Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? |
No |
454 |
0.902 |
$409.19 |
$0.91 |
+0.2% |
| Will Netflix win the most Emmys? |
Yes |
1,585 |
0.245 |
$388.27 |
$26.09 |
+7.2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
593 |
0.605 |
$358.47 |
$20.47 |
+6.1% |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? |
Yes |
15,406 |
0.023 |
$354.34 |
$-656.60 |
-64.9% |
| Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? |
No |
366 |
0.867 |
$316.97 |
$43.08 |
+15.7% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion? |
No |
462 |
0.660 |
$304.69 |
$-4.62 |
-1.5% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? |
No |
300 |
0.859 |
$257.55 |
$-13.45 |
-5.0% |
| Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? |
Yes |
606 |
0.385 |
$233.44 |
$113.64 |
+94.9% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? |
Yes |
1,780 |
0.106 |
$188.72 |
$-6.19 |
-3.2% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
No |
1,860 |
0.090 |
$167.38 |
$-27.41 |
-14.1% |
| Will HBO Max win the most Emmys? |
No |
465 |
0.335 |
$155.80 |
$1.13 |
+0.7% |
| Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? |
Yes |
486 |
0.315 |
$153.12 |
$-15.08 |
-9.0% |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? |
Yes |
4,934 |
0.029 |
$145.56 |
$-35.27 |
-19.5% |