| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
5,287 |
0.325 |
$1,718.16 |
$-506.67 |
-22.8% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
618 |
0.830 |
$512.68 |
$3.44 |
+0.7% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
700 |
0.460 |
$321.64 |
$-72.40 |
-18.4% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
374 |
0.780 |
$291.72 |
$-31.10 |
-9.6% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? |
No |
216 |
0.885 |
$191.09 |
$7.84 |
+4.3% |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
67,429 |
0.003 |
$168.57 |
$0.07 |
+0.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
800 |
0.195 |
$155.98 |
$-181.98 |
-53.8% |
| Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31? |
Yes |
161 |
0.822 |
$132.26 |
$28.19 |
+27.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Yes |
100 |
0.967 |
$96.59 |
$10.64 |
+12.4% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
3,673 |
0.025 |
$89.98 |
$-3.02 |
-3.2% |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.815 |
$40.74 |
$5.74 |
+16.4% |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? |
No |
44 |
0.870 |
$38.38 |
$1.71 |
+4.7% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? |
Yes |
464 |
0.062 |
$29.00 |
$20.14 |
+227.5% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
700 |
0.033 |
$23.10 |
$-0.55 |
-2.3% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
112 |
0.180 |
$20.16 |
$-55.94 |
-73.5% |
| Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31? |
Yes |
19 |
0.815 |
$15.62 |
$0.67 |
+4.5% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.745 |
$14.90 |
$2.90 |
+24.2% |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30? |
Yes |
10 |
0.978 |
$9.85 |
$0.48 |
+5.1% |
| Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.001 |
$7.50 |
$-7.50 |
-50.0% |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.105 |
$5.25 |
$0.10 |
+1.9% |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.004 |
$4.50 |
$0.50 |
+12.5% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.096 |
$3.84 |
$-6.16 |
-61.6% |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? |
No |
8 |
0.345 |
$2.85 |
$0.45 |
+18.9% |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.023 |
$0.92 |
$-0.57 |
-38.4% |