Trader
0xa22fcbc1b2b9eacade17e128d643ab3304ffaf41
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$5
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-6.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
88%
22W / 3L · 13 open
Win Return (30d)
81%
29W / 7L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
38
across 11 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$0.91
avg win $1 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.26
$2 won / $6 lost
Reward / Risk
0.17
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$6
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $84 · all-time $23,506
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
8 |
0.970 |
$7.53 |
$0.07 |
+1.0% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
4 |
0.885 |
$3.36 |
$0.36 |
+12.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
5 |
0.675 |
$3.16 |
$0.16 |
+5.5% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
7 |
0.455 |
$3.03 |
$0.03 |
+1.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
3 |
0.973 |
$2.99 |
$-0.01 |
-0.4% |
| Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? |
No |
4 |
0.785 |
$2.98 |
$-0.02 |
-0.6% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
1 |
0.961 |
$0.98 |
$0.03 |
+2.8% |