| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
54,899 |
0.845 |
$46,389.46 |
$8,702.88 |
+23.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
2,722 |
0.925 |
$2,517.69 |
$109.76 |
+4.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
2,000 |
1.000 |
$1,999.00 |
$325.00 |
+19.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1,600 |
0.978 |
$1,564.00 |
$41.00 |
+2.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
1,270 |
0.999 |
$1,268.55 |
$6.30 |
+0.5% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
1,247 |
0.905 |
$1,128.09 |
$153.93 |
+15.8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
1,400 |
0.745 |
$1,043.00 |
$119.00 |
+12.9% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.875 |
$875.00 |
$95.00 |
+12.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.870 |
$870.03 |
$400.01 |
+85.1% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
900 |
0.945 |
$850.50 |
$91.50 |
+12.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
829 |
0.945 |
$783.01 |
$60.43 |
+8.4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
803 |
0.955 |
$766.84 |
$111.91 |
+17.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
800 |
0.935 |
$748.00 |
$34.00 |
+4.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
800 |
0.905 |
$724.00 |
$90.00 |
+14.2% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
719 |
0.852 |
$612.50 |
$75.95 |
+14.2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
545 |
0.895 |
$487.98 |
$112.60 |
+30.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
No |
500 |
0.964 |
$481.75 |
$16.75 |
+3.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,738 |
0.170 |
$465.46 |
$-1,970.86 |
-80.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
450 |
0.999 |
$449.55 |
$16.10 |
+3.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.973 |
$389.00 |
$45.00 |
+13.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
437 |
0.855 |
$373.56 |
$45.88 |
+14.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
700 |
0.520 |
$364.00 |
$71.00 |
+24.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.905 |
$362.00 |
$18.00 |
+5.2% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.940 |
$282.00 |
$6.00 |
+2.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
400 |
0.625 |
$250.00 |
$40.00 |
+19.0% |