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Trader

0x9fc3008979bad97e6ea01a7062bbf7f3edf212af
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$18
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$8
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
54%
205W / 174L · 27 open
Win Return (30d)
54%
218W / 188L
Trades (30d)
406
across 116 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$0.17
avg win $3 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.89
$149 won / $167 lost
Reward / Risk
1.00
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$9
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,496 · all-time $413,495

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 47.3% 550W/612L 417 $8,628
🎬 Culture 9.5% 2W/19L 11 $157
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/17L 8 $84
🏛 Politics 33.3% 2W/4L 4 $63
⚽ Sports 100.0% 3W/0L 1 $29
₿ Crypto 1 $22

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

102 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? Yes 220 0.730 $160.60 $-27.05 -14.4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? Yes 2,306 0.007 $17.30 $10.38 +150.0%
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? No 20 0.825 $16.50 $-0.20 -1.2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31? Yes 20 0.825 $16.12 $0.40 +2.6%
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31? Yes 20 0.712 $14.23 $-2.19 -13.3%
Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No 10 1.000 $9.99 $0.25 +2.6%
Will hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande be the top song for 2026? No 10 0.995 $9.95 $0.71 +7.7%
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? No 10 0.993 $9.93 $0.46 +4.9%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%? Yes 10 0.971 $9.71 $1.51 +18.4%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? No 10 1.000 $9.67 $3.00 +44.9%
Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the top song in the US for 2026? No 10 0.967 $9.67 $0.57 +6.3%
Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? No 10 0.942 $9.41 $2.81 +42.6%
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? Yes 19 0.485 $9.21 $6.45 +232.7%
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship? No 10 0.936 $9.08 $-0.39 -4.1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.903 $9.03 $2.93 +48.0%
Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 10 0.886 $8.87 $4.37 +97.0%
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2027? No 10 0.880 $8.80 $1.00 +12.8%
Will Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie? No 10 0.820 $8.20 $-0.50 -5.7%
Will PPI YoY be 6.0% or more in July? No 10 0.820 $8.20 $-0.90 -9.9%
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? No 12 0.695 $8.03 $-1.45 -15.3%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? No 8 0.966 $7.90 $0.70 +9.6%
USMCA extended in 2026? No 10 0.750 $7.50 $2.50 +50.0%
Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31? No 10 0.735 $7.35 $0.35 +5.0%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 8 0.940 $7.23 $0.54 +8.0%
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes 10 0.695 $6.95 $1.85 +36.3%