| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? |
No |
69 |
0.972 |
$66.70 |
$-0.18 |
-0.3% |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? |
No |
65 |
0.933 |
$60.78 |
$0.57 |
+0.9% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.995 |
$59.81 |
$1.65 |
+2.8% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
50 |
0.985 |
$49.25 |
$0.79 |
+1.6% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
71 |
0.625 |
$44.41 |
$4.62 |
+11.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
67 |
0.625 |
$41.61 |
$-2.04 |
-4.7% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
38 |
0.976 |
$37.22 |
$0.30 |
+0.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
33 |
0.986 |
$32.54 |
$-0.07 |
-0.2% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
58 |
0.535 |
$30.80 |
$2.57 |
+9.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
29 |
0.986 |
$28.13 |
$-0.04 |
-0.1% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
20 |
0.924 |
$18.51 |
$1.90 |
+11.5% |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? |
No |
19 |
0.915 |
$17.39 |
$1.05 |
+6.4% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
16 |
0.993 |
$16.36 |
$0.25 |
+1.5% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
16 |
0.952 |
$15.66 |
$1.12 |
+7.7% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.994 |
$14.90 |
$0.90 |
+6.4% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
14 |
0.935 |
$13.01 |
$0.63 |
+5.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? |
No |
14 |
0.895 |
$12.67 |
$0.35 |
+2.9% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? |
No |
13 |
0.975 |
$12.21 |
$0.13 |
+1.1% |
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
13 |
0.914 |
$11.69 |
$1.02 |
+9.6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? |
No |
12 |
0.989 |
$11.65 |
$0.03 |
+0.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.979 |
$10.66 |
$0.46 |
+4.5% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
No |
12 |
0.875 |
$10.54 |
$0.42 |
+4.2% |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
No |
9 |
0.982 |
$9.21 |
$0.07 |
+0.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9 |
0.958 |
$9.03 |
$0.54 |
+6.4% |
| Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
10 |
0.925 |
$9.01 |
$-0.05 |
-0.5% |