| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
1,319 |
0.385 |
$507.76 |
$-73.50 |
-12.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
373 |
0.845 |
$315.09 |
$27.16 |
+9.4% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
165 |
0.710 |
$116.96 |
$32.33 |
+38.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
209 |
0.495 |
$103.26 |
$13.82 |
+15.5% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
112 |
0.750 |
$83.65 |
$-4.32 |
-4.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
No |
83 |
0.885 |
$73.72 |
$2.08 |
+2.9% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? |
Yes |
206 |
0.325 |
$66.88 |
$-8.55 |
-11.3% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
91 |
0.700 |
$63.67 |
$-0.40 |
-0.6% |
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? |
Yes |
134 |
0.430 |
$57.47 |
$32.06 |
+126.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
66 |
0.695 |
$45.89 |
$17.49 |
+61.6% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? |
Anthropic |
50 |
0.895 |
$44.73 |
$5.75 |
+14.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
50 |
0.840 |
$41.98 |
$23.99 |
+133.3% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
46 |
0.915 |
$41.63 |
$1.32 |
+3.3% |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
45 |
0.920 |
$41.40 |
$0.90 |
+2.2% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
No |
45 |
0.875 |
$39.38 |
$-0.23 |
-0.6% |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
43 |
0.875 |
$37.64 |
$1.51 |
+4.2% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? |
Yes |
68 |
0.535 |
$36.46 |
$-0.34 |
-0.9% |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 |
Yes |
479 |
0.065 |
$31.15 |
$-197.79 |
-86.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? |
No |
51 |
0.465 |
$23.50 |
$-10.36 |
-30.6% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
23 |
0.975 |
$22.72 |
$9.67 |
+74.1% |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.870 |
$17.40 |
$-0.80 |
-4.4% |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.953 |
$14.29 |
$0.49 |
+3.5% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? |
Yes |
40 |
0.340 |
$13.60 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
50 |
0.260 |
$13.07 |
$5.30 |
+68.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? |
Yes |
40 |
0.305 |
$12.20 |
$2.20 |
+22.0% |