| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.961 |
$2,883.00 |
$162.00 |
+6.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
3,836 |
0.615 |
$2,359.00 |
$-439.04 |
-15.7% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,174 |
0.905 |
$1,967.59 |
$104.84 |
+5.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,200 |
0.845 |
$1,014.02 |
$36.00 |
+3.7% |
| Will Alberta join the US? |
No |
1,000 |
0.980 |
$979.50 |
$28.50 |
+3.0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.945 |
$945.00 |
$75.00 |
+8.6% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.390 |
$780.00 |
$-300.00 |
-27.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.675 |
$675.00 |
$35.00 |
+5.5% |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
800 |
0.795 |
$636.00 |
$36.00 |
+6.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
977 |
0.595 |
$581.31 |
$-15.95 |
-2.7% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
Yes |
8,196 |
0.065 |
$532.73 |
$-286.86 |
-35.0% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
500 |
0.974 |
$486.75 |
$176.75 |
+57.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,064 |
0.410 |
$436.28 |
$-196.15 |
-31.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
519 |
0.815 |
$422.93 |
$-13.03 |
-3.0% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
700 |
0.585 |
$409.50 |
$-24.50 |
-5.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.815 |
$407.44 |
$67.45 |
+19.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.365 |
$364.97 |
$-194.98 |
-34.8% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
2,055 |
0.148 |
$305.16 |
$-349.18 |
-53.4% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
No |
1,312 |
0.220 |
$288.69 |
$-232.58 |
-44.6% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
700 |
0.013 |
$9.45 |
$-57.75 |
-85.9% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
12 |
0.725 |
$8.70 |
$0.42 |
+5.1% |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.035 |
$0.52 |
$-0.67 |
-56.3% |