| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
No |
352 |
0.885 |
$311.76 |
$25.55 |
+8.9% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
660 |
0.356 |
$235.26 |
$-14.97 |
-6.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
221 |
0.845 |
$186.72 |
$0.28 |
+0.2% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
305 |
0.603 |
$184.08 |
$-41.50 |
-18.4% |
| Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
No |
313 |
0.570 |
$178.35 |
$-28.74 |
-13.9% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
625 |
0.278 |
$173.45 |
$18.41 |
+11.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
234 |
0.625 |
$145.99 |
$6.00 |
+4.3% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
170 |
0.855 |
$145.34 |
$5.35 |
+3.8% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? |
No |
150 |
0.966 |
$144.55 |
$4.57 |
+3.3% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
No |
151 |
0.935 |
$140.74 |
$0.75 |
+0.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
317 |
0.443 |
$140.38 |
$1.10 |
+0.8% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
160 |
0.830 |
$133.05 |
$9.60 |
+7.8% |
| Will CopperTech Metals not IPO before September 2026? |
Yes |
116 |
0.985 |
$114.03 |
$7.94 |
+7.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
108 |
0.992 |
$107.48 |
$7.53 |
+7.5% |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
110 |
0.909 |
$100.16 |
$79.17 |
+377.2% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? |
No |
105 |
0.882 |
$93.08 |
$68.75 |
+282.6% |
| Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? |
Yes |
91 |
0.910 |
$82.93 |
$13.99 |
+20.3% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
167 |
0.495 |
$82.45 |
$8.82 |
+12.0% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? |
No |
87 |
0.930 |
$80.86 |
$40.87 |
+102.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.805 |
$80.50 |
$12.50 |
+18.4% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? |
No |
80 |
0.997 |
$79.72 |
$19.72 |
+32.9% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
No |
80 |
0.982 |
$78.87 |
$64.42 |
+445.6% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? |
No |
263 |
0.285 |
$74.97 |
$24.97 |
+49.9% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
78 |
0.945 |
$73.49 |
$3.50 |
+5.0% |
| Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
79 |
0.925 |
$73.25 |
$17.01 |
+30.2% |