| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
800 |
0.915 |
$732.00 |
$37.50 |
+5.4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
700 |
0.745 |
$521.51 |
$144.84 |
+38.5% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
No |
600 |
0.860 |
$516.00 |
$90.00 |
+21.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
600 |
0.845 |
$507.00 |
$65.00 |
+14.7% |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? |
Yes |
500 |
0.984 |
$491.75 |
$26.75 |
+5.8% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.830 |
$415.00 |
$-10.00 |
-2.4% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
400 |
0.983 |
$393.00 |
$5.40 |
+1.4% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
No |
700 |
0.550 |
$384.99 |
$-30.00 |
-7.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
550 |
0.675 |
$371.25 |
$10.25 |
+2.8% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.905 |
$362.00 |
$22.00 |
+6.5% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
400 |
0.865 |
$346.00 |
$6.00 |
+1.8% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.860 |
$343.98 |
$18.00 |
+5.5% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.675 |
$337.50 |
$7.50 |
+2.3% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.560 |
$336.00 |
$-9.00 |
-2.6% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,700 |
0.117 |
$314.55 |
$-84.44 |
-21.2% |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? |
No |
350 |
0.875 |
$306.27 |
$29.75 |
+10.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.485 |
$194.00 |
$14.00 |
+7.8% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.455 |
$182.17 |
$-32.02 |
-14.9% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
Yes |
108 |
0.690 |
$74.51 |
$2.15 |
+3.0% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.035 |
$69.00 |
$-371.00 |
-84.3% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
500 |
0.021 |
$10.25 |
$-19.75 |
-65.8% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? |
Yes |
94 |
0.060 |
$5.65 |
$-16.94 |
-75.0% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? |
Yes |
42 |
0.075 |
$3.14 |
$-2.30 |
-42.3% |