Papuasus
0x9034d7be0aff3819327a8927905e8f174e8c4375
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$1,675
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$263
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-23.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
22%
106W / 387L · 87 open
Win Return (30d)
18%
106W / 474L
Trades (30d)
580
across 24 markets · ~24 per market
EV / position
−$88.16
avg win $1,833 · loss $314
Profit Factor
0.69
$3,666 won / $5,341 lost
Reward / Risk
5.83
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$724
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $20,105 · all-time $1,740,675
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
2,600 |
0.018 |
$45.50 |
$-124.49 |
-73.2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
600 |
0.075 |
$45.00 |
$-39.00 |
-46.4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.006 |
$19.50 |
$-67.50 |
-77.6% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.003 |
$7.50 |
$-22.50 |
-75.0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
3,700 |
0.002 |
$5.55 |
$-9.25 |
-62.5% |