| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
Yes |
1,820 |
0.275 |
$500.51 |
$-418.95 |
-45.6% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
4,588 |
0.095 |
$435.89 |
$-316.10 |
-42.0% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
2,351 |
0.180 |
$423.11 |
$-15.88 |
-3.6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
5,500 |
0.065 |
$357.50 |
$-122.50 |
-25.5% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? |
No |
631 |
0.358 |
$226.02 |
$-155.98 |
-40.8% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
952 |
0.145 |
$138.10 |
$-61.90 |
-31.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
Yes |
1,385 |
0.095 |
$131.54 |
$-178.46 |
-57.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
556 |
0.165 |
$91.67 |
$-8.33 |
-8.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
909 |
0.080 |
$72.73 |
$-127.27 |
-63.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
Yes |
982 |
0.055 |
$54.00 |
$-253.80 |
-82.5% |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
197 |
0.257 |
$50.56 |
$-9.44 |
-15.7% |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
720 |
0.052 |
$37.78 |
$-44.52 |
-54.1% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
260 |
0.139 |
$36.01 |
$17.39 |
+93.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
1,724 |
0.019 |
$33.62 |
$-66.38 |
-66.4% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
100 |
0.305 |
$30.55 |
$-25.45 |
-45.4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.095 |
$19.00 |
$-33.00 |
-63.5% |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
537 |
0.013 |
$6.98 |
$-3.02 |
-30.2% |
| Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
133 |
0.043 |
$5.72 |
$-2.48 |
-30.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
12 |
0.215 |
$2.65 |
$-7.35 |
-73.5% |