| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.875 |
$4,375.00 |
$371.39 |
+9.3% |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? |
No |
1,973 |
0.933 |
$1,841.06 |
$0.87 |
+0.0% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
2,752 |
0.585 |
$1,609.99 |
$-48.99 |
-3.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
5,551 |
0.195 |
$1,082.38 |
$-294.17 |
-21.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
1,191 |
0.835 |
$994.30 |
$5.96 |
+0.6% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,007 |
0.865 |
$871.27 |
$45.33 |
+5.5% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
398 |
0.970 |
$385.73 |
$15.91 |
+4.3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
1,631 |
0.225 |
$367.03 |
$-144.10 |
-28.2% |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? |
No |
361 |
0.991 |
$357.59 |
$5.05 |
+1.4% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? |
No |
353 |
0.974 |
$343.30 |
$343.30 |
+0.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
400 |
0.705 |
$282.00 |
$-2.00 |
-0.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
250 |
0.987 |
$246.62 |
$2.38 |
+1.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? |
No |
258 |
0.940 |
$242.57 |
$20.12 |
+9.0% |
| Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
No |
500 |
0.395 |
$197.50 |
$197.50 |
+0.0% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? |
Yes |
749 |
0.260 |
$194.69 |
$-62.40 |
-24.3% |
| Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
125,000 |
0.002 |
$187.50 |
$37.75 |
+25.2% |
| Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
118,427 |
0.002 |
$177.64 |
$-59.21 |
-25.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.835 |
$167.00 |
$3.00 |
+1.8% |
| Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
344 |
0.480 |
$165.00 |
$165.00 |
+0.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
200 |
0.715 |
$142.99 |
$5.00 |
+3.6% |
| Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
91,897 |
0.002 |
$137.84 |
$45.95 |
+50.0% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? |
Yes |
666 |
0.185 |
$123.24 |
$123.24 |
+0.0% |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
72,323 |
0.002 |
$108.48 |
$-34.43 |
-24.1% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
200 |
0.535 |
$107.00 |
$21.00 |
+24.4% |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? |
No |
138 |
0.725 |
$99.82 |
$99.82 |
+0.0% |