| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
428 |
0.910 |
$389.69 |
$62.27 |
+19.0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.905 |
$362.00 |
$18.00 |
+5.2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
311 |
0.961 |
$298.97 |
$7.51 |
+2.6% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
300 |
0.987 |
$295.95 |
$7.35 |
+2.5% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.925 |
$277.50 |
$7.50 |
+2.8% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.905 |
$181.00 |
$25.00 |
+16.0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.895 |
$179.00 |
$7.00 |
+4.1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
200 |
0.875 |
$175.00 |
$7.00 |
+4.2% |
| Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? |
No |
148 |
0.995 |
$147.52 |
$1.66 |
+1.1% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
200 |
0.735 |
$147.00 |
$3.00 |
+2.1% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.994 |
$99.40 |
$4.40 |
+4.6% |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.968 |
$96.79 |
$12.80 |
+15.2% |
| Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? |
Yes |
137 |
0.605 |
$82.99 |
$5.54 |
+7.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.675 |
$67.50 |
$11.50 |
+20.5% |
| Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? |
No |
50 |
0.908 |
$45.40 |
$-2.85 |
-5.9% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
50 |
0.887 |
$44.35 |
$-3.15 |
-6.6% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
50 |
0.816 |
$40.77 |
$2.88 |
+7.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? |
Yes |
50 |
0.755 |
$37.75 |
$22.75 |
+151.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.460 |
$22.98 |
$-2.77 |
-10.7% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.680 |
$13.60 |
$1.80 |
+15.3% |
| Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? |
Yes |
16 |
0.331 |
$5.17 |
$0.15 |
+3.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.975 |
$5.12 |
$0.97 |
+23.4% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? |
No |
1 |
0.925 |
$1.11 |
$0.03 |
+2.8% |