| Trump out as President by August 31? |
No |
7,804 |
0.993 |
$7,745.55 |
$55.21 |
+0.7% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
3,500 |
0.985 |
$3,445.76 |
$54.25 |
+1.6% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,481 |
0.986 |
$2,445.30 |
$21.36 |
+0.9% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
1,923 |
0.977 |
$1,877.34 |
$14.83 |
+0.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
1,500 |
0.985 |
$1,476.75 |
$19.55 |
+1.3% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? |
Yes |
1,364 |
0.935 |
$1,275.67 |
$69.79 |
+5.8% |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? |
No |
1,402 |
0.855 |
$1,198.53 |
$89.19 |
+8.0% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? |
No |
997 |
0.971 |
$967.13 |
$61.29 |
+6.8% |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? |
No |
965 |
0.925 |
$892.24 |
$179.59 |
+25.2% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? |
No |
720 |
0.955 |
$687.49 |
$53.39 |
+8.4% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? |
No |
612 |
0.980 |
$599.97 |
$39.08 |
+7.0% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
534 |
0.973 |
$519.32 |
$13.02 |
+2.6% |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? |
No |
537 |
0.940 |
$504.73 |
$10.37 |
+2.1% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? |
No |
500 |
1.000 |
$499.75 |
$37.25 |
+8.1% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.945 |
$472.49 |
$7.50 |
+1.6% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.935 |
$467.50 |
$2.50 |
+0.5% |
| New pandemic in 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.935 |
$374.00 |
$6.00 |
+1.6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.925 |
$370.00 |
$2.00 |
+0.5% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.915 |
$366.00 |
$2.00 |
+0.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
300 |
0.935 |
$280.50 |
$7.50 |
+2.7% |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? |
No |
256 |
0.945 |
$241.79 |
$7.42 |
+3.2% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
No |
240 |
0.980 |
$234.67 |
$-0.17 |
-0.1% |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? |
No |
233 |
0.910 |
$212.00 |
$16.80 |
+8.6% |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? |
No |
220 |
0.925 |
$203.39 |
$8.04 |
+4.1% |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.955 |
$199.24 |
$11.11 |
+5.9% |